KANSAS CITY, Mo. - The trends that matter for Tim Shanahan are right in front of him.

Land prices, grain prices, fertilizer and fuel costs, interest rates, demand for ethanol and exports - those factors tell whether the years are profitable for the Cedar Bluffs, Neb., farmer.

Times have been good enough that Shanahan recently bought some adjacent land at a price four times as high as he first paid for his farm south of Fremont in 1993.

"I think every farmer's pessimistic," he said. "Think you have to be. I always expect those tough times to come around again. We're trying to be ready for them, not stick your neck out too far, not be overleveraged."

Long-term trends indicate the same: The current boom in agriculture - a "golden era," by some descriptions - likely will give way to a slowdown.

"History has told us that golden eras of agriculture sometimes turn into fool's gold," former U.